[Summary] Nā kumukūʻai pulupulu kūloko a i ʻole e hoʻomau ʻia nā haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa. Ke kokoke mai nei ka wā kiʻekiʻe o ka mākeke lole lole, akā ʻaʻole i kū mai ka makemake maoli, ke emi nei ka nui o ka wehe ʻana o nā ʻoihana textile, a ke hāʻule mau nei ke kumukūʻai o ka lole pulupulu. I kēia manawa, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka ulu ʻana o ka pulupulu hou, ʻaʻole e loli ka piʻi ʻana o ka hana a ʻoi aku ka manawa o ka papa inoa ma mua o ka makahiki i hala. I ka manawa like, e hoʻopuka koke ʻia ka ʻauhau pulupulu hoʻoheheʻe ʻia, a ʻaʻole e emi ke kaomi i lalo o nā kumukūʻai pulupulu kūloko.
I. I keia pule no ke kumu kuai
Mai ʻAukake 12 a hiki i 16, ʻo ke kumu kūʻai maʻamau o Zhengzhou pulupulu e hiki mai ana i ka wā e hiki mai ana he 13,480 yuan/ton, ma lalo o 192 yuan/ton mai ka pule i hala aku nei, ma lalo o 1.4%; ʻO ka papa kuhikuhi kumu kumu kūʻai pulupulu B, e hōʻike ana i ke kumukūʻai makeke o ka lint papa maʻamau ma ka ʻāina nui, he 14,784 yuan/ton, i lalo he 290 yuan/ton mai ka pule i hala, a i ʻole 1.9%. ʻO ke kumu kūʻai awelika o ka pulupulu o New York i ka wā e hiki mai ana he 67.7 keneta/paona, piʻi aʻe he 0.03 keneta/paona mai ka pule i hala aku nei, he palahalaha; ʻO ke kumu kūʻai maʻamau o ka papa kuhikuhi pulupulu honua (M) e hōʻike ana i ke kumu kūʻai awelika o ka pulupulu i lawe ʻia mai ma ke awa nui o Kina he 76.32 keneta/paona, ʻoi aku ka 0.5 keneta/paona mai ka pule i hala, a ʻo ke kumu kūʻai lawe mai o RMB 13,211 yuan/ton ( helu ʻia e 1% tariff, ʻaʻole i hoʻokomo ʻia i nā ʻano like ʻole a me nā ukana ʻo Hong Kong), piʻi i 88 yuan/ton mai ka pule i hala, he piʻi o 0.7%. ʻO ke kumu kūʻai pulupulu kūloko he 1573 yuan/ton ke kiʻekiʻe ma mua o ke kumukūʻai pulupulu honua, ʻo ia ka 378 yuan/ton haiki ma mua o ka pule i hala. He 21,758 yuan/ton ke kumu kūʻai maʻamau o C32S maʻemaʻe maʻemaʻe, ma lalo o 147 yuan/ton mai ka pule i hala. ʻO ke kumu kūʻai o ka wili maʻamau he 22222 yuan / ton, e like me ka pule i hala. ʻO ke kumu kūʻai o ka polyester staple fiber he 7488 yuan/ton, ma lalo o 64 yuan/ton mai ka pule i hala.
ʻO ka lua, ka nānā ʻana o ka mākeke wā kokoke
(1) Makeke honua
Ua ʻike ʻia nā mea maikaʻi, nā kumukūʻai pulupulu a i ʻole e kūpaʻa. Ua wānana ka US Department of Agriculture's August supply and demand reporting US cotton production of 3.29 miliona tons in 2024/25, he emi ʻana o 410,000 tons mai ka mahina i hala aku nei, ma muli o ka ulu nui ʻana o ka maloʻo ma ka ʻāina e hana ana i ka pulupulu US. Ke hōʻike nei ka USDA Drought Monitor e pili ana i ka 22 pakeneka o nā wahi hana pulupulu i hoʻopilikia ʻia i ka maloʻo e like me kēia pule, mai ka 13 pakeneka o ka pule ma mua. Wahi a ka helu helu mai ke Kuhina Mahiai o Inia, ma ka lā 8 o ʻAukake, 2024/25, ʻo 166 miliona ka nui o nā wahi kanu pulupulu o India, ma lalo o 8.9% o kēlā me kēia makahiki, a ke wānana ʻia nei ka emi ʻana o ka hana e 370,000 tons makahiki. makahiki. Eia nō naʻe, hōʻike ka ʻikepili o ka US Commerce Department i ka piʻi ʻana o ka ʻai kūʻai kūʻai US i 1 pakeneka i Iulai mai ka mahina i hala aku nei, ʻo ke kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe loa mai Pepeluali 2023, e hōʻemi ana i ka hopohopo e pili ana i ka emi ʻana o ka US, e hāʻawi ana i ke kākoʻo no ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka manaʻo i ka mākeke huahana. Wahi a ka United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission hōʻike, ma ʻAukake 6, ʻo ICE cotton futures kalepa (mea hana, mea kālepa, mea hana) net kūlana lōʻihi 1156, no ka manawa mua mai ka makahiki 2019 e huli i ka ʻupena, ʻo ia hoʻi ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei nā kālā ʻoihana i ka pulupulu honua. nā kumu kūʻai a i ʻole ua komo i ka pae koho haʻahaʻa. Hoʻohui pū ʻia me nā mea i luna, manaʻo ʻia e kūpaʻa nā kumukūʻai pulupulu honua.
(2) ʻO ka mākeke kūloko
ʻAʻole i ʻike ka noi i lalo i ka hoʻomaka, ua hoʻomau nā kumukūʻai pulupulu i ka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa. Wahi a ka National Bureau of Statistics, ʻo ke kūʻai aku ʻana o nā lole, nā kāmaʻa, nā pāpale a me nā huahana textile ma Kina i Iulai he 93,6 biliona yuan, ma lalo o 5,2% o ka makahiki; Ua hōʻike ʻia ka ʻikepili Dute ʻo ka lawe ʻia ʻana o nā lole lole a me nā lole a Kina i Iulai he 26.8 biliona kālā ʻAmelika, ma lalo o 0.5% makahiki ma ka makahiki. Mai ʻAukake, ke kakali nei ka mākeke kūloko i ka wā e hiki mai ana "gold nine silver ten" e hiki mai ana, akā ʻaʻole i hōʻike nā kauoha i nā hōʻailona o ka holomua. Wahi a ka ʻōnaehana mākaʻikaʻi mākaʻikaʻi o ka ʻāina, i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ʻAukake he hōʻike hōʻike o nā ʻoihana textile e wehe i ka likelika o 73.6%, ma lalo o 0.8 pakeneka mai ka mahina i hala aku nei, ʻo nā ʻano ʻano like ʻole hoʻokahi wale nō e hōʻike i kekahi mau hōʻailona o ka hoʻomehana ʻana. Ke kaumaha mau nei ka lewa wake-and-see ma ka mākeke, i kēia pule ke hāʻule mau nei nā kumukūʻai pulupulu kūloko. I kēia manawa, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka ulu ʻana o ka pulupulu, ua manaʻo ʻia ʻoi aku ka mua o ka papa inoa o ka pulupulu ma mua o ka makahiki i hala, a ua kokoke e hoʻopuka ʻia ka ʻauhau pulupulu hoʻoheheʻe ʻia, kahi e hoʻoikaika hou ai i nā kumukūʻai pulupulu kūloko, a ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hiki ke hoʻomau i nā haʻalulu haʻahaʻa.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: ʻAukake-19-2024